All Probabilities are the Same

Sales probabilities are always 50%, an order is received or not.

One only has to review quarterly results of public companies to see how difficult it is to forecast sales accurately.  These companies have incredible resources at their disposal, and most have detailed historical data to take into account when developing their predictions.  Most companies assign probabilities to each sale and then determine a weighted average in determining their forecasts.  The wide variance from period to period and company to company suggests this technique is less than effective.